IT'S TIME FOR THE ANNUAL PREDICTIONS AND AN EXPLANATION FOR 2004'S PICKS.
This year went by as fast as a pack of stock cars at Talladega. That tells me it's time for my annual racing predictions for the upcoming 2005 season and it's time to accept the laughter from my racing buddies who are waiting for me to explain my 2004 selections.
As I say each and every year, I do not own a crystal ball and my picks are often based on gut feelings. It was painfully obvious that I had frequent cases of an upset stomach during 2004.
With that thought in mind, here come my annual predictions for 2005 preceded by a note of explanation regarding 2004's picks.
THE DAYTONA 500. I truly though that Michael Waltrip was going to win the 2004 edition of the great American race and went on record as saying so. As we all know, Dale Earnhardt JR won the race but you have to get me a bonus point here. At least I got the right team owner.
The 2005 Daytona 500 will become a battle ground featuring the cars from Dale Earnhardt Inc and Hendricks Motorsports. Hendricks has clearly figured out what DEI has known all along about restrictor plate racing and racing fans will get treated to some terrific performances between these two powerhouse teams.
But when all of the racing dust is settled, Earnhardt JR will once again park the Budweiser Chevy into victory lane. This will likely be attributed to the complete change of crew members that took place in mid December. The relationship between Earnhardt and crew chief/cousin Tony Eury JR was reportedly so bad that the two men barely spoke to each other during the final race of the year at Miami.
The crew change will give a usually confident Earnhardt an extra shot in the arm and will give him another win at Daytona. The crew changes will also benefit Michael Waltrip who seriously needs a good year in 2005.
NASCAR NEXTEL CUP CHAMPIONSHIP. I chose Ryan Newman to win the first ever Race For The Chase Nextel Cup title in 2004 based on his incredible performance the year before.
But the ten race scenario had some surprising wrinkles and I must admit that Kurt Busch and Roush Racing overcame a lot of obstacles to win the title during the final race. While I'm still really not that fond of the championship procedure, I must admit that it worked and NASCAR got everything they wanted from it.
Regarding 2005: for all the reasons I just listed, pertaining to the Daytona 500, Dale Earnhardt Jr will turn the awards banquet in New York into a giant Budweiser party in 2005.
THE NASCAR NEXTEL CUP ROOKIE OF THE YEAR. Okay, okay I know I picked Brendan Gaughan but you have to seriously cut me some slack here. No one saw Kasey Kahne coming on the way he did. In fact, I'm not even sure if team owner Ray Evernham expected Kahne to come on that strong.
But something most interesting came from the 2004 rookie picture. Kahne raised the performance bar so high that the 2005 newcomers will likely be under a lot of pressure to match that. It also appears that team owners, looking for another Kasey Kahne, are not going to be willing to spend a lot of time and money nurturing a rookie. Brendan Gaughan has already been released from the Roger Penske owned Kodak ride and was replaced by Travis Kvapil who, like Gaughan, achieved a great deal of success and attention from the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.
I'm thinking that Kvapil will rise to the occasion and win the rookie title in 2005. I also believe that 2004 rookie Kahne will park Evernham's Dodge into victory and finally get that first win. But, then again, that's one basically a no brainer.
RUSTY WALLACE. Hooray! Here's one I actually got right. All through 2003, and well into 2004, Rusty Wallace was hounded by the racing media about the winless streak. I said the streak would be snapped in 2004 and it would happen on a short track. He did exactly that at Martinsville.
As Wallace prepares for his final season as a driver, look for him to find victory lane at least once in 2005. I can't think of anyone hungrier for a win than a driver during his farewell tour.
THE NASCAR BUSCH SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP. I missed this one also but it really wasn't my fault. I picked Bobby Hamilton JR to take this title only to watch him leave the series, in the final months of the year, to take the Nextel Cup ride for owner Cal Wells.
Regarding the 2005 Busch Series title, I sticking with the tried and true formula displayed by DEI and driver Martin Truex JR during 2004. I think Truex and company will be even tougher to beat in 2005 and the repeat title in inevitable.
THE NASCAR CRAFTSMAN TRUCK SERIES. One year ago I would have bet the farm that Ted Musgrave, and the Jim Smith owned Ultra Motorsports team, was going to win this title. I also said that Steve Park, driving the Orleans Motorsports Dodge, would return to victory lane and relight the fire that made a good driver to begin with.
Picking a champion for this series in 2005 is tough because there are so many good possibilities to choose from. I can safely predict that 2005 will be one of the best Craftsman Truck Series seasons ever because the field will be full of former series champions, wily veterans with a lot of racing left in them and a strong group of young lions eager to establish a name for themselves.
I'm picking Dennis Setzer to take the title in 2005 based on a strong consistency in the past combined with the feeling that it's simply time for this very good team to rise to the top.
Regarding Steve Park, he had some very good runs late in 2004 and looked like a winning contender. I still think he will find a NASCAR victory lane this year in the truck series but gut feeling tells me that he needs to do it soon.
THE NASCAR AUTOZONE, ELITE DIVISION, SOUTHWEST SERIES. I missed this one also but it was on a technicality. I picked David Gilliland to win this title only to find out a few weeks later that he was going to be dividing his time between the Southwest Series and the Grand National Division West Series. My saving grace lies in the fact that Gilliland lived up to my faith in his ability and actually had a very good 2004 in both series.
The Southwest Series is always loaded with outstanding talent and picking a winner is always tough. However, gut feeling tells me that Jim Pettit II will wind up being a repeat champion based on the team's excellent pre race prep work and the very smooth, patient and consistent style of the driver. Look for Pettit the second to take a second Southwest Series title in 2005.
THE NASCAR AUTOZONE, ELITE DIVISION, NORTHWEST SERIES. I picked the right last name but didn't pick the right brother. I said Jason Jefferson would capitalize on the momentum of an outstanding 2003 rookie season and win the title in 2004. In fact, Jeff Jefferson won his second title in what turned out to be one of the best points finishes in NASCAR. Jefferson won the title by a mere one point over rookie Travis Bennett following the final lap of the final race of the year. It just doesn't get any better than that.
Because of that close finish I'm picking Bennett to become a champion in his sophomore season. He made quick work of learning his rookie lessons and has clearly proven that he is the real deal.
THE NASCAR GRAND NATIONAL DIVISION WEST SERIES. Again, there are a lot of good choices here. Chief among them is the killer combination of 2004 champion Mike Duncan and crew chief Bill Sedgwick himself a West Series champion.
Also, you never make the mistake of overlooking Bill McAnally Racing, an operation that knows how to win West Series titles. BMR's recent decision to put veteran Steve Portenga in the seat of their Napa Chevy, replacing the departed Austin Cameron, is a rock solid one that will net them some good results.
But, then again, there's this strong twitchy feeling in my gut that says 2005 will be the year of David Gilliland and, just like his father Butch, he will win the West Series championship this year. But it won't be easy for him; he'll have his hands full with some very tough competition.
So, there you have it. I'm again putting my reputation on the line again with annual racing predictions. I'm not sure why I keep doing this every year. Maybe it's for the amusement of my racing buddies whose lives are short on genuine entertainment or maybe I'm just a glutton for punishment.
