The Chevy Rock N Roll 400, next Saturday night at the Richmond International Raceway, will be one of the most important races the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series' teams will see all year long. This is the race that's going to identify the class of 2009 and who gets to participate in the Sprint Cup Chase For The Championship. The fact that the 12 man Chase line up will be determined on this Virginia short track, that thinks it's a super speedway, is going to make Saturday night even more exciting.
THE CHASE BREAKDOWN
We already know that Tony Stewart cliched his Chase berth at the Michigan race. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon earned their Chase entries at Bristol while Denny Hamlin clinched his spot last Sunday night in Atlanta.
From that point on it's white knuckle time for the remainder of the top 12 in the championship standings. There are eight spots left in the Chase line up with 11 drivers eligible to claim their right to race for a championship worth several million dollars. There are some very significant numbers connected to these 11 drivers and, quite frankly, if they get one good night's sleep this entire week that alone will be quite remarkable.
Sitting fifth in the standings, going into the Richmond race, is Carl Edwards. He was expected to be the first of the Roush Fenway Racing Fords to clinch a Chase berth last Sunday at Atlanta. However, some on track debris broke his oil cooler box and he found himself going home with a 37th place finish.
While Edwards' Chase potential numbers has tightened up this week he's still basically in good shape to earn a starting berth. He can do that by finishing 24th or better at Richmond. He can also clinch with a 25th place finish with the five bonus points from leading a lap or finish 27th with the extra five bonus points for leading the most laps. This may be one of those rare times when you see this driver points racing.
Sixth in the standings is Kasey Kahne and his Richard Petty Motorsports Dodge. This may one of the big stories of 2009 because no one really expected this team to be in the Chase when the season started last February. But some consistent finishes over the past few months, combined with that huge win at Atlanta last Sunday, has turned this team into a major Chase player.
To officially clinch a Chase berth at Richmond, Kahne needs to finish 21st or better, 23d after leading a lap or 24th after leading the most laps. This seems plausible but also expect him to drive a rather cautious race Saturday night.
Kurt Busch, 7th in the standings, was also expected to clinch his Chase berth at Atlanta but instead found himself collected in a crash not of his making. Despite the setback Busch is basically in good shape, as long as there's no more bad luck, to place his Penske Racing Dodge in the Chase line up.
He can accomplish this with a 20th place finish or better, 22nd with leading a lap and 24th after leading the most laps.
Now we get to the group of drivers where the numbers really start to get interesting. This group of five are only 88 laps away from 13th in the standings and may seriously be considering doing some points racing to make sure they don't wind up on the outside looking in.
This group is led by Juan Pablo Montoya who freely admits that he's been points racing to make sure his Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, EGR, Chevrolet makes the Chase. Montoya's #42 Chevrolet is really the only source of pride for EGR at a point in time when this organization needs something to be proud of. A Chase berth would do wonders for the organization's efforts towards soliciting sponsorship for their two car, that began as a four car, operation.
To accomplish this Montoya needs to finish 18th or better Saturday night, 20th with a lap led and 21st after leading the most laps.
When Tony Stewart announced that he was leaving Joe Gibbs Racing to start his own team, and was bringing Ryan Newman with him, no one expected very much from them in 2009. Clearly we were all wrong. Stewart has a better than great chance of winning the title and Newman is looking good to put the second team in the Chase line up.
Newman is 81 points ahead of the 13th position. He can officially claim a Chase berth with a 16th place finish or better, 17th with a lap led and 19th after leading the most laps at Richmond. A Chase berth will also go a long way towards acquiring the needed additional sponsorship for Newman's team for next year.
Now the tension really starts to mount.
Tenth in the standing is ageless icon Mark Martin who is 69 points away from 13th. A little over three weeks ago Martin, a four time race winner, was in danger of falling out of the top 12th following a disastrous fuel mileage gamble at the Michigan race. However rock solid runs at Bristol and Atlanta has eased that sting a little.
But Martin is not out of the woods yet because any form of hard luck at Richmond could put him between that proverbial rock and a hard place again. Martin can officially clinch his Chase berth by finishing 12th or better Saturday night, 14th with a lap lead or 15th after leading the most laps.
11th in the standings is the Roush Fenway Racing Ford driven by Greg Biffle who is 68 points out of 13th. Here's another driver who may have trouble sleeping Friday night while worrying over Chase scenarios. He's also another driver who simply cannot afford a bad night at Richmond.
Biffle can officially clinch his Chase berth with an 11th place finish or better, 13th with a lap lead or 14th after leading the most laps
The one driver everyone will be watching Saturday night will be Matt Kenseth. The Roush Fenway Racing driver is not just trying to keep a spot in the 12 man Chase line up. He's made every championship run since the inception of the Chase and wants to keep that streak alive. The Kenseth season is somewhat of a mystery. The team started the 2009 season strong with back to back wins at Daytona and California. But since that time his season has been seen the consistency level of a roller coaster ride. Not only does Kenseth have to worry about who's ahead of him in the standings, he also has to keep a sharp eye on who's trying to come up behind him. He's only 20 points out of 13th.
A win at Richmond will certainly ease all of Kenseth's concerns. He can also clinch a Chase berth with a second place finish with a lap led or 3d after leading the most laps in the race. He is absolutely the focal point of this year's Chase drama.
That's because of who sitting right behind him.
On the outside looking are two drivers who will absolutely have the attention of every NASCAR racing fan Saturday night. Brian Vickers, and his Red Bull Toyota team. are 13th in the standing only 20 points away from that all important 12th position. This team was not expected to be players in this year's Chase. But a string of strong finishes, capped by the team's first ever Cup win at Michigan, has them in the position of pulling off a major upset.
To clinch a Chase berth Vickers needs to finish 21 points ahead of Kenseth while staying ahead of Kyle Busch. A win at Richmond, or a strong top five finish against a mediocre Kenseth finish could turn up the surprise of the year.
Kyle Busch, and his Joe Gibbs Racing team, may be the biggest Chase surprise of the season. How can a team with four wins be 14th in the standings and 37 points from not making the Chase at all? Busch has been a demon while doing double duty in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and almost has a lock on a Nationwide Series championship. But last May there was a noticeable lack of consistency in his Cup program that continued until recent weeks and that's what put him in this rather large hole in the Chase standings.
Busch will be the driver to watch Saturday night in Richmond. To have any hopes of earning a Chase berth he needs to finish the race at least 17 points ahead of Vickers and 37 points ahead of Kenseth. In other words: win the race. That's very plausible. He won the first Richmond race in the spring and has seven top five finishes in nine starts there.
Mathematically speaking David Reutimann, and his Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota team, are still eligible to earn a Chase berth but it's going to take a win combined with some help from the teams ahead of him to pull this off. No matter what happens at Richmond this has been a banner year for this team. They have some shown some remarkable improvement, including their first ever Cup win this year, and will be a team to watch in 2010.
THE RACE BREAKDOWN
Saturday's Chevy Rock N Roll 400 has 44 entries meaning one of the teams will be going home. Nine of those entries are on the go or go home list meaning the teams are outside of NASCAR's top 35 in owner's points and must earn a starting berth in the race based on their qualifying speed. If Friday's qualifying gets rained out, and there is rain in the forecast for Richmond on that day, then driver Max Papis, and his Germain Brothers Toyota team, will be the odd man out.
Kyle Busch won the race at Richmond from the spring after starting 14th. Jimmie Johnson is defending race winner from last year after starting third.
Among the active drivers Dale Earnhardt Jr, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Terry Labonte are tied for the most Richmond wins with three each. But it's King Richard Petty who owns the real estate where Richmond's victory lane is located. Petty has 13 wins there. He also holds the record for top five finishes, 34, and top tens at 41.
In the manufacturer's win stats Richmond has been very kind to the bow tie brigade. Chevrolet has 34 wins there followed by Ford-28 and Dodge-17.
Brian Vickers owns the track qualifying record, 129.983 MPH, set in May of 2004. Vickers also set the fast time in qualifying for last May's Richmond race. Jeff Gordon has the most poles, 5, among active drivers. On the all time list Richard Petty and Bobby Allison are tied for the most Richmond poles with eight.
THE TRACK BREAKDOWN
Saturday night's race is 400 laps/300 miles around Richmond's 0.75 mile oval.
The straightaways are 60 feet wide with an additional 10 foot apron.
There are 14 degrees banking in all four turns. The front stretch is banked eight degrees but there's only two degrees of banking in the backstretch. Turning left quickly is the norm for Richmond. The front stretch is only 1,290 feet long. The backstretch is even shorter measuring 860 feet.
The pit road speed is 45 MPH.
The track currently can seat 112,029 fans.
The Richmond International Raceway opened in 1946. The first NASCAR Cup race was held in 1953. The track was reconfigured to its present shape and size in 1988.
THE TELEVISION BREAKDOWN, (ALL LISTED TIMES EASTERN)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup broadcast weekend begins Friday afternoon, 12 pm, on Speed.
Final Happy Hour practice is Friday, 2pm, and will be aired on ESPN2
Qualifying can be seen at 530pm also on ESPN2.
The Chevy Rock N Roll 400 can be seen on ABC Saturday night beginning at 7pm.
Re airs of the race will be Sunday-330am-on ESPN2, Sunday-11am-on ESPN2 and Wednesday-12pm-on Speed.
THE VEGAS BREAKDOWN
Vegas Insider.Com likes Jimmie Johnson to repeat his win from this time last year and has rated the possible four time champion at 5 to 1 odds.
They also think that Kyle Busch will be charging hard to make the Chase and Tony Stewart will be gunning for those ten bonus points that comes with each win for a Chase contender. Both drivers are ranked at 6 to 1 for the Richmond race.
Four time Cup champion Jeff Gordon is rated at 7 to l followed by Mark Martin-8 to 1, Denny Hamlin 10 to 1 while drivers Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards received a Vegas Insider rating of 14,15 and 16 to 1 respectively. Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle who again need strong finishes to insure their Chase berths are rated at 18 to 1
Matt Kenseth, the man on the Chase bubble, is ranked 20 to 1 as are Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman. Three time Richmond winner Dale Earnhardt Jr is also rated at 20 to 1 and that could make a rather interesting bet considering the forward progress this team has made as of late.
Brian Vickers, the driver outside looking in at the Chase will be gunning for a win to make the Chase although Vegas Insider has rated him at 25 to 1.
Time for the weekly disclaimer. NASCAR again wants us to remind you these odds are for entertainment purposes only and they neither encourage nor condone the placing of wagers on their events.
For those of you who would rather not risk your hard earned money on the outcome of a stock car race, you may want to consider checking out those cute little racing gnomes that are currently being featured on the NASCAR Store on line.
(Yeah right! Someone get my bookie on the phone.)
